Election Day Special: How Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market

Today is Voting Day, a pivotal moment not only for the future of our nation but also for the economy—including the housing market. Presidential elections bring unique questions about how the housing market might be influenced by political outcomes and economic uncertainty. To help shed light on what happens during and after an election year, we’ve put together answers to some common questions about how elections impact home sales, mortgage rates, and home prices.

1. Do Elections Slow Down the Housing Market?

Typical Trend: Historically, home sales from October to November tend to decrease by around 9.8% in a regular year. During election years, however, this decline can reach 15%, as many potential buyers and sellers choose to wait for the outcome before making significant financial commitments.

This Year: In 2024, 23% of first-time buyers are delaying their purchase until after the election. This pause reflects how political uncertainties can lead people to put off big decisions until they feel more certain about the future.

2. Do More Homes Sell After an Election?

Typical Trend: Yes, sales often bounce back after an election. In fact, 82% of the time, the housing market has experienced increased activity in the year following an election. This uptick is usually driven by renewed consumer confidence as political uncertainty fades.

This Year: Experts are forecasting a rise in home sales from 4.6 million in 2024 to 5.2 million in 2025. This growth shows the resilience of the housing market and suggests that post-election stability encourages more buying and selling activity.

3. What Happens to Mortgage Rates in an Election Year?

Typical Trend: Mortgage rates have historically decreased 72% of the time between July and November in election years, offering buyers favorable conditions.

This Year: It’s been a volatile year, with rates as low as 6.08% in September. Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 8% from their peak last fall, giving buyers an opportunity to secure financing at more attractive rates.

4. How Do Elections Affect Home Prices?

Typical Trend: Home prices tend to rise following an election, increasing 88% of the time in the year afterward. This trend shows that while there may be short-term adjustments, the overall trajectory of home prices remains upward.

This Year: Looking to 2025, national home prices are expected to grow by about 2.5%. This projection emphasizes that while elections may cause temporary uncertainty, the housing market is resilient and continues its long-term appreciation trend.

The Bottom Line on Election Day

While elections do create some temporary shifts in the housing market, these changes are usually short-lived. Home sales, mortgage rates, and prices often stabilize and even show growth once the election cycle ends. So, as you head to the polls today, remember that the housing market is likely to bounce back from any short-term fluctuations caused by the election.

If you'd like a consult, visit our office at 34 South St, Jamaica Plain, or give us a call at 617-676-4086.

Sources: BTIG, Census, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, MBA, NAR, Redfin, ResiClub